The report draws on a survey of 1,743 randomly selected men and women, interviewed in Sinhala or Tamil language during June-July 2015. They were asked about mobile phone use and web access. The survey was conducted by Social Indicator, CPA’s survey research unit.
As the launch media release noted, “From the use of Facebook to smartphones, from news on TV to news via SMS, from how information read digitally is spread to others who are offline, the report offers insights into how content is produced, disseminated and discussed in Sri Lanka’s most densely populated province and home to the country’s administrative and business hubs.”
Population ageing happens when older people (typically over 60) account for an increasingly large proportion of the total population. It is the result of declining fertility rates, lower infant mortality and increasing survival at older ages – all triumphs of development.
This happened slowly but steadily during the last few decades. Worldwide, older people’s share of population has risen sharply. In 1950, when the world’s population was 2.5 billion, there were 205 million persons over 60. In 2014, there were 868 million such persons – nearly 12% of the total.
Meanwhile, the number of new-borns has been falling. In 2000, for the first time in history, there were more people over 60 globally than children below 5. And within the next decade, the number of older persons will surpass 1 billion.
Proportions matter more than absolute numbers. It is the age structure of a country’s population that directly affects economic productivity and human development.
In South Asia (SAARC region), Sri Lanka has the highest proportion of older people, which was 13% in 2014. This is projected to rise to 20% by 2031, and a quarter by 2041. Parallel to this, the proportion of working age population – which reached its peak in 2006 (65.1%) – will keep falling. This is similar to what is happened in many East Asian countries.
“As Sri Lanka experiences a demographic transition, the country will face several economic and social challenges, especially in handling the social protection and health care needs of a rising elderly population,” cautioned the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) in its ‘Sri Lanka State of the Economy 2014’ report. “In addition, Sri Lanka will also have to address the implications of a shrinking workforce on the growth of the country.”
How can we prepare for this shift, to avoid being overwhelmed economically and socially?
In this week’s Ravaya column (appearing in issue of 13 Dec 2015), I explore this big challenge, with data and analysis from 2012 Census and the Global AgeWatch Index 2015 that came out in September 2015.
In their manifesto for the Parliamentary Election in August 2015, the United National Front for Good Governance talked about Megapolis. Now in office, UNFGG wants to make it happen.
The proposal is not exactly new. It first emerged over a decade ago, when Ranil Wickremesinghe was last Prime Minister. The original plan was developed by CESMA International, a part of Singapore’s state-run Housing Development Corporation (now rebranded as Surbana).
The aim was to create a large metropolitan region “expanding outwards from Colombo to Avissawella in the north and Panadura to the south”.
The revived megapolis plan would probably resemble original. And it looks set to become the Mahaweli of the new government.
Despite regime change in January 2015, we in Sri Lanka still live with corruption, technocratic arrogance and political expediency. Our rulers love to monitor private actions of citizens in the name of ‘national security’. Can megapolis or smart cities become another extension of our overbearing state?
I argue here that the new government must also learn from the decade-long misadventure of Hambantota where investments did not match local needs or people’s aspirations.
See also: My interview with Dr Ranil Senanayake (2012):
Open Minds! (formerly: Moving Images blog) 